2012 Spring and Summer Sales Numbers: Consistent With Traditional Trends
One of the most commonly asked questions for Realtors is, “When’s the best time for us to put our house on the market?”
Nationally, statistics do show that most contracts are written in the Spring/Summer months, and they slow down as you get into the Fall/Winter months. Looking at this trend on a local level, you’ll find that it pretty much stays true. I took a look at 4 different zip codes in Loudoun- 20165, 20147, 20148, and 20176- and went inside the numbers starting with the early spring transactions and ending with August’s. (*These numbers include all contracts- detached single family homes, townhouses, and condos. Data is per Matrix/Mris, 9:30 a.m. 9/7/2012*)
Over the course of this 7 month span, April and May (181 transactions) were the most active two consecutive months, with the transactions peaking in May (97). Although June’s numbers fell off from May’s, they increased about 5% from both June to July, and July to August (76 to 81). The biggest jump from one month to another was from February (57) to March (87)– a 52.6% increase. Coincidentally, the increase in transactions from February to March- percentage wise, was the biggest jump from any one month to another, for all four zip codes I analyzed. In Summary: April and May was the best two month window to sell your house, with May and June (178) coming in a close second. There was an almost 25% drop off from May’s peak of 97 to June’s (73).
March and April took the title for the best two month window to sell your house in this zip code. The (127) total transactions bettered April and May’s numbers by 8 total transactions. However, unlike 20147, this zip code- which includes the likes of Broadlands and Brambleton- didn’t completely fall off as we got into the summer months. In Summary: Like 20147, the spring months were the most active, however the drop off from May to June (58 to 56/3%) was nowhere near the 25% drop off that 20147 saw. Also, this zip code showed the most consistent numbers, with the biggest fall off in transactions from any one month to another being just (7%).
This zip code- which includes Cascades, Potomac Falls, Countryside, Lowes Island- was the only zip code of the four that showed an increase in transactions for the consecutive months of March (54), April (60), and May (70). However, 20165 had the second biggest fall off “once school ended”. The 70 to 54 transaction drop off from May to June (23%) was second only to 20147’s. In Summary: Spring months were more consistent like the others, but the summer months’ numbers were the worst of the 4 zip codes. The 39% drop off from June(54) to August’s (33) numbers is as telling as anything, relative to the “When’s the best time to list my house, Mike?” question.
Next to 20148, this zip code had the smallest drop off from May to June (81 to 74/ 8%). April and May proved to be the best two month window to sell (173) total transactions, similar to the others. And like the others- except 20165’s 28% drop off, we saw almost a panic for those who had not purchased prior to the school year starting, when the calender turned from July to August. 20148 stayed pretty steady, with only a 4 transaction fall off, but 20176’s increase from July to August was pretty dramatic, relatively speaking (21% increase). In Summary: Like the other three, prior to the end of school and the start of the summer is still the best time to list your house. And along with 20148, not as drastic a drop off once the summer began.
Buyers really start getting active around the 1st of March, and as a seller its pretty much a guarantee you’ll see less traffic thru your house once school ends and vacations kick it come June. However, we’ve seen a slight tick up around the 1st of August. Look for an update on the September numbers for all 4 of these zip codes, sometime during the first week of October. For a more detailed look at the zip code or subdivision that you live in, contact me directly.
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